After months of campaigning, and in some cases more than a year since the nominated shows aired, it should feel easy to make Emmy-winner predictions. But with multiple previous winners going head-to-head for the first time, some canny release strategies putting some shows very front of mind for voters, and way too many nominated Succession actors to keep track of, the choices are trickier the closer you look. Our Awards Insider team, however, did their best, predicting the winners—as well as who could win and who should win—in every category that will be announced at the Primetime Emmy Awards on Monday, September 12.

Drama Series

Better Call Saul
Euphoria
Ozark
Severance
Squid Game
Stranger Things
Succession
Yellowjackets

As with so much of the TV industry these days, this category effectively comes down to HBO vs. Netflix. Will the prestige-TV hitmaker reign once again with Succession, which won the last time it was eligible? Or will Netflix, which finally won this category for the first time last year with The Crown, hang in there with its surprise global smash Squid Game, or maybe even departing Emmy favorite Ozark? We still give the edge to Succession—after all, Emmy voters never felt the need to abandon HBO’s Game of Thrones, even for its disappointing final season—but given the industry excitement around Squid Game, a surprise seems very possible. —Katey Rich

Predicted Winner: Succession
Could Win: Squid Game
Should Win: Severance

Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Jason Bateman, Ozark 
Brian Cox, Succession 
Lee Jung-jae, Squid Game 
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul 
Adam Scott, Severance 
Jeremy Strong, Succession

The only real thousand-to-one shot in this stacked category is Adam Scott. (Sorry, buddy–it’s an honor just to be nominated, right?) Otherwise, every actor present makes a strong case for clinching the gold—perhaps especially Jason Bateman and Bob Odenkirk, both of whom have been nominated year after year for playing signature roles on beloved shows that have come to an end. (Okay, so technically, Odenkirk will be eligible in 2023 for the last six episodes of Saul—but with those final installments now fresh in the minds of voters, now seems like his best shot.) Even so, these stalwarts seem likely to be overlooked one last time in favor of one of Succession’s main men or Lee Jung-jae, the emotional anchor of Squid Game. If Succession wins best drama—and it seems like it will—the academy will probably give this category to Lee as a way of honoring both his performance and Squid Game’s overall achievement. If Squid Game wins best drama, best actor will almost certainly go instead to a member of the Roy family—probably Brian Cox, since Jeremy Strong won for the show’s last season. Accomplished actors all…but seriously, what does Bob Odenkirk have to do to get a damn acting Emmy?! —Hillary Busis

Predicted Winner: Lee Jung-jae, Squid Game
Could Win: Brian Cox, Succession
Should Win: Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul

Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Jodie Comer, Killing Eve
Laura Linney, Ozark
Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show
Zendaya, Euphoria

This category seems to come down to the wire every year—Zendaya narrowly outpacing Laura Linney in 2020, Olivia Colman upsetting her Crown costar Emma Corrin last year—and Monday night will be no different. Zendaya is defending her title for Euphoria’s widely embraced second season, with Linney again competitive for a flashy final run on Ozark. But the real spoiler here is Lynskey. The Yellowjackets star won the hearts of critics and voters, and has run the kind of campaign—honest, earnest, witty—that’s hard to resist. A long-respected Hollywood journeywoman, she’s finally got her moment—and voters may very well honor it. —David Canfield

Predicted Winner: Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets
Could Win: Zendaya, Euphoria
Should Win: Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets

Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Nicholas Braun, Succession
Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Park Hae-soo, Squid Game
Matthew Macfadyen, Succession
Christopher Walken, Severance
John Turturro, Severance
Oh Yeong-su, Squid Game

The Succession vs. Squid Game narrative extends far beyond the best-drama race, and is alive and well in the supporting-actor category. There’s a chance that Oh Yeong-su, who is 77 years old, could land this for his performance in Squid Game as the seemingly harmless old man, but this looks to really be a two-man race between Succession’s Kieran Culkin and Matthew Macfadyen. Both delivered impressive and nuanced performances in the third season of the HBO juggernaut, but we’re betting that voters will want to reward Culkin for his ability to take Roman Roy from a snide troublemaker to a vulnerable son and brother in this season. —Rebecca Ford

Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin, Succession
Could Win: Matthew Macfadyen, Succession
Should Win: Kieran Culkin, Succession

Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Patricia Arquette, Severance
Julia Garner, Ozark
Hoyeon, Squid Game
Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets
Rhea Seehorn, Better Call Saul
J. Smith-Cameron, Succession
Sarah Snook, Succession
Sydney Sweeney, Euphoria

The question here is just how much of a final-season bump to expect from Better Call Saul. Yes, as with Bob Odenkirk, Rhea Seehorn is technically eligible one more time for the final run of episodes that aired just as Emmy voting was getting underway. But, as David Canfield has noted, the enthusiasm around the series finale would make this the perfect moment to give both stars their moment—and with Seehorn getting her first-ever nomination this time, she’s seeming especially overdue. But the competition is fierce, with Screen Actors Guild–winner and breakout star Hoyeon representing the Squid Game crew, Julia Garner a double nominee and previous winner in this category, and Sarah Snook a pretty easy choice among the two Succession nominees. This is sneakily one of the toughest categories to predict. —K.R.

Predicted Winner: Rhea Seehorn, Better Call Saul
Could Win: Hoyeon, Squid Game
Should Win: Rhea Seehorn, Better Call Saul

Writing for a Drama Series

Jesse Armstrong, Succession (“All the Bells Say”) 
Dan Erickson, Severance (“The We We Are”) 
Hwang Dong-hyuk, Squid Game (“One Lucky Day”) 
Jonathan Lisco, Ashley Lyle, and Bart Nickerson, Yellowjackets (“F Sharp”)
Ashley Lyle and Bart Nickerson, Yellowjackets (“Pilot”)
Chris Mundy, Ozark (“A Hard Way to Go”) 
Thomas Schnauz, Better Call Saul (“Plan and Execution”) 

Holy finales, Batman! Aside from Yellowjackets—recognized here for the first and second installments of its first season—every episode in this category concludes either a season or a series, often in explosive fashion. Chief among them, most likely, will be Succession’s doozy of a third-season ender, which brought a sometimes meandering clutch of episodes to a heart-pounding, game-changing, meme-stoking finish. Given both the power of Succession as an Emmy juggernaut and the strength of this episode in particular, it would be very surprising for another nominee to come out on top. If anyone could manage, it might be Severance, a sleeper hit that seems more likely to be recognized for its sharp puzzle-box writing than it is in any other category. As in drama actor, though, our sentimental favorite is Better Call Saul, which also brought the (first half of) its sixth season to an incredible, unpredictable close. Too bad nobody in the TV Academy seems willing to rank that show number one. —H.B.

Predicted Winner: Jesse Armstrong, Succession (“All the Bells Say”)
Could Win: Dan Erickson, Severance (“The We We Are”)
Should Win: Thomas Schnauz, Better Call Saul (“Plan and Execution”) 

Directing for a Drama Series

Jason Bateman, Ozark (“A Hard Way to Go”)
Hwang Dong-hyuk, Squid Game (“Red Light, Green Light”)
Karyn Kusama, Yellowjackets (“Pilot”)
Mark Mylod, Succession (“All the Bells Say”)
Lorene Scafaria, Succession (“Too Much Birthday”)
Ben Stiller, Severance (“The We We Are”)
Cathy Yan, Succession (“The Disruption”)

Succession won on its last go-round here despite fielding several nominees—can it pull this off again? Quite possibly, with Mark Mylod’s work on the devastating finale the most likely of the show’s contenders to come out on top. But it’s got big competition in two freshmen destined for big wins: Squid Game, for which Hwang Dong-hyuk helmed the entire first season—to great acclaim—and Ben Stiller, bringing career-best directorial work to Severance. The shows are neck and neck in noms totals, so will the academy go with the Hollywood newbie or with the insider? It’s close. —D.C.

Predicted Winner: Hwang Dong-hyuk, Squid Game (“Red Light, Green Light”)
Could Win: Ben Stiller, Severance (“The We We Are”)
Should Win: Hwang Dong-hyuk, Squid Game (“Red Light, Green Light”)

Comedy Series

Abbott Elementary
Barry
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Hacks
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Only Murders in the Building
Ted Lasso
What We Do in the Shadows

Every returning show on this list has been nominated for this prize for a previous season, but only two have won: Maisel, in 2018, and Ted Lasso, in 2021, in an impressive sweep for the Apple series that also included lead (Jason Sudeikis) and supporting actor (Brett Goldstein) and supporting actress (Hannah Waddingham). So Ted Lasso feels like a front-runner once again, even though its second season wasn’t as well received as the first. There are a trio of shows—What We Do in the Shadows, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, and Curb Your Enthusiasm—that feel a little bit too past their expiration date to take the prize at this point. So Lasso’s stiffest competition this year comes from Hacks, Barry, Only Murders in the Building, and Abbott Elementary. The newer (and not eligible) season of Only Murders played through the summer, so its quite fresh in voters’ minds, and Hacks and Barry have received plenty of love from the TV Academy in the form of wins for their lead actors. But if there’s going to be a show to snatch the ball away from Lasso, we think it might be ABC’s Abbott Elementary, a sharp and modern network show that still harkens back to the classic sitcoms of yore. The show was a breakout hit, though a broadcast series hasn’t taken this award since 2014, so it will be a big hurdle to climb. —R.F.

Predicted Winner: Ted Lasso
Could Win: Abbott Elementary
Should Win: Abbott Elementary

Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Donald Glover, Atlanta
Bill Hader, Barry
Nicholas Hoult, The Great
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso

The Saturday Night Live force is strong in this category, with three former cast members and a beloved recurring host all plausible winners here. Jason Sudeikis and Bill Hader are both technically reigning champions, since Sudeikis’s win for Ted Lasso last year happened when Barry was still on hiatus. But could the summer air dates of Only Murders season two propel Steve Martin or Martin Short to victory? We’re still counting on a bit of Emmy-voter entropy—and maybe a bit of tabloid attention boost—handing back-to-back wins to Sudeikis, but it’s incredibly tight. —K.R.

Predicted Winner: Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
Could Win: Bill Hader, Barry
Should Win: Bill Hader, Barry

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant
Elle Fanning, The Great
Issa Rae, Insecure
Jean Smart, Hacks

A salty TV vet pitted opposite a savvy, multitalented up-and-comer—this category is almost like Hacks come to life! Really, though, that’s the only way in which the two comedy-actress front-runners—Jean Smart and Quinta Brunson—resemble the leading ladies on the HBO series. Smart won this award for that show last year, and most oddsmakers still have her listed as their favorite. In a world where Julia Louis-Dreyfus won this category an astonishing six times in a row, that’s certainly not an impossibility. Yet we can’t escape the inkling that Hacks season two received a relatively muted reception, particularly in comparison to the rapturous response drawn by Abbott Elementary. And Abbott is synonymous with Brunson, the show’s creator, writer, producer, and star. If the academy wants to look like it’s on the cutting edge, it’ll reward Brunson over Smart—particularly if giving her this particular award seems like their best shot at honoring Abbott overall. —H.B.

Predicted Winner: Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Could Win: Jean Smart, Hacks
Should Win: Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary

Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Anthony Carrigan, Barry
Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso
Toheeb Jimoh, Ted Lasso
Nick Mohammed, Ted Lasso
Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
Henry Winkler, Barry
Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live

Three former winners are nominated together in this category for the first time: Shalhoub, Winkler, and reigning champ Goldstein. The former’s Maisel is likely too past its prime to bring him back to the stage, though Shalhoub is also the only one without a costar to split votes with, so never say never. Winkler, meanwhile, brings recency (and quality) bias, with Barry’s lauded third season ending nearly a year closer to voting than Ted Lasso did. In other words, this comes down to how strong the Apple TV+ comedy remains overall. If you expect another strong year for Lasso, it’s hard to see how Roy f---ing Kent won’t get swept up in all that once more. —D.C.

Predicted Winner: Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso
Could Win: Henry Winkler, Barry
Should Win: Henry Winkler, Barry

Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
Sarah Niles, Ted Lasso
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Juno Temple, Ted Lasso
Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso

The 2021 champ (Ted Lasso’s Hannah Waddingham) is back in the race this year, but actually has more competition from her own show with both Juno Temple and Sarah Niles both nominated alongside her. Hannah Einbinder is a phenomenal performer on Hacks, though many would argue she belongs in the lead-actress category. Kate McKinnon won this award in 2016 and 2017, and her biggest fans might want to reward her one more time as she exits the show. But Saturday Night Live doesn’t hold the same weight in this category as it used to. The question for many of these categories is if the academy wants to reward past favorites, or give it to someone new. If it’s the latter, Janelle James or Sheryl Lee Ralph feel like they could run away with this, though they offer different narratives. The latter is an icon in the industry who is finally getting some long-overdue attention thanks to the writing and performance she’s delivered on the charming Abbott Elementary, while James is more of a discovery who has created a colorful character that people love to talk about (and meme). —R.F.

Predicted Winner: Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso
Could Win: Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Should Win: Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary

Writing for a Comedy Series

Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky, Hacks (“The One, the Only”)
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary (“Pilot”)
Duffy Boudreau, Barry (“710N”)
Bill Hader and Alec Berg, Barry (“Starting Now”)
Steve Martin and John Hoffman, Only Murders in the Building (“True Crime”)
Jane Becker, Ted Lasso (“No Weddings and a Funeral”)
Sarah Naftalis, What We Do in the Shadows (“The Casino”)
Stefani Robinson, What We Do in the Shadows (“The Wellness Center”)

A lot of gamesmanship goes into deciding what to submit in these categories, in which shows can wind up competing against themselves, and the question remains of how much an edge Hacks, Abbott Elementary, Only Murders in the Building, and Ted Lasso will have with just single nominations here. Hacks is the only previous winner, and Ted Lasso—with two nominations last year that might have canceled each other out—could have its chance for victory this time. But we wonder if it won’t come down to Bill Hader and Steve Martin, who are nominated in lead actor as well as here, as cowriters for their shows. It’s frankly insane that Barry has never won an Emmy for writing, but with two nominations, it might miss out on one again. —K.R.

Predicted Winner: Steve Martin and John Hoffman, Only Murders in the Building (“True Crime”)
Could Win: Jane Becker, Ted Lasso (“No Weddings and a Funeral”)
Should Win: Bill Hader and Alec Berg, Barry (“starting now”)

Directing for a Comedy Series

Lucia Aniello, Hacks (“There Will Be Blood”) 
Jamie Babbit, Only Murders in the Building (“True Crime”) 
Cherien Dabis, Only Murders in the Building (“The Boy From 6B”) 
MJ Delaney, Ted Lasso (“No Weddings and a Funeral”) 
Mary Lou Belli, The Ms. Pat Show (“Baby Daddy Groundhog Day”) 
Bill Hader, Barry (“710N”) 
Hiro Murai, Atlanta (“New Jazz”)

Is Barry a comedy? Well, no. But it’s undoubtedly one of the most gorgeously directed shows on television, with a sweeping and singular vision all its own. (We’d call it “cinematic,” but using that descriptor for a TV show always feels like a bit of a neg; what’s wrong with a beautiful episodic series that’s meant to be an episodic series?) Barry and its auteur, Bill Hader, have been Emmy darlings for years. This season should be no different, particularly since Hader is nominated here for an episode featuring an ambitious, bravura action sequence that would make Christopher Nolan envious. Barring a total sweep in comedy by the likes of Hacks or Ted Lasso, Barry has it in the bag. —H.B.

Predicted Winner: Bill Hader, Barry (“710N”) 
Could Win: Lucia Aniello, Hacks (“There Will Be Blood”) 
Should Win: Bill Hader, Barry (“710N”) 

Limited or Anthology Series

Dopesick
The Dropout
Inventing Anna
Pam & Tommy
The White Lotus

A very clear two-horse race between Hulu’s Dopesick and HBO’s The White Lotus—both of which aired last year—this duel is a classic battle of capital-i important versus capital-f fun. The TV Academy loved both shows so much that the supporting-actress race is made up entirely of their actors (more on that in a minute). But there’s no denying that the passion for Mike White’s resort tragicomedy runs a little deeper—and that, in its skewering of the white-wealthy-liberal type, it’s got an advantage in courting a, ahem, demographically similar set of voters. —D.C.

Predicted Winner: The White Lotus
Could Win: Dopesick
Should Win: The White Lotus

Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Colin Firth, The Staircase
Andrew Garfield, Under the Banner of Heaven
Oscar Isaac, Scenes From a Marriage
Michael Keaton, Dopesick
Himesh Patel, Station Eleven
Sebastian Stan, Pam & Tommy

So many movie stars, so little time. This category is packed with A-listers, which unfortunately leaves Himesh Patel from Station Eleven very unlikely to win, despite a top-notch performance. Those nominated for shows that didn’t get into the best-limited-series category—including Oscar Isaac and Colin Firth—weren’t likely watched or liked by enough voters. Sebastian Stan’s transformative work in Pam & Tommy got a lot of attention when the series first came out, but it’s lost a bit of steam recently. So this race comes down to a former Spider-Man and a former Batman. Though Under the Banner of Heaven failed to make it into best-limited-series contention—and didn’t receive any other nominations—Andrew Garfield is fresh off an Oscar nomination for Tick, Tick…Boom!, and he showed off his range by going from playing an eccentric and loud composer-playwright to portraying a quiet and brooding Mormon detective. However, this award is most likely going to Michael Keaton for Dopesick, which earned 14 nominations. We’ve already seen how voters like to give Keaton awards (he’s won a SAG Award, a Critics Choice Award, and a Golden Globe for the role so far), and we expect this one to be no different. —R.F.

Predicted Winner: Michael Keaton, Dopesick
Could Win: Andrew Garfield, Under the Banner of Heaven
Should Win: Michael Keaton, Dopesick

Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Toni Collette, The Staircase
Julia Garner, Inventing Anna
Lily James, Pam & Tommy
Sarah Paulson, Impeachment: American Crime Story
Margaret Qualley, Maid
Amanda Seyfried, The Dropout

From the moment we heard the voice, we knew Amanda Seyfried would be the one to beat in this category, for a portrayal of Elizabeth Holmes that got all the obvious things right—the messy hair, the messiah complex—but also showed a deeper empathy for how one person could cause so much exceptional damage. For a while it seemed like her primary competition would be Julia Garner as fellow scammer Anna Delvey—Garner is, after all, an Emmy winner, and her show occupied even more of the pop-culture imagination. But after the surprising nomination haul for Pam & Tommy, we wonder if Lily James might be the dark horse here, with her transformation into Pamela Anderson being the most widely praised aspect of the Hulu series. —K.R.

Predicted Winner: Amanda Seyfried, The Dropout
Could Win: Julia Garner, Inventing Anna
Should Win: Amanda Seyfried, The Dropout

Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Murray Bartlett, The White Lotus
Jake Lacy, The White Lotus
Will Poulter, Dopesick
Seth Rogen, Pam & Tommy
Peter Sarsgaard, Dopesick
Michael Stuhlbarg, Dopesick
Steve Zahn, The White Lotus

Just as in the top limited-series category, this is the battle of The White Lotus vs. Dopesick, whose sheer nomination totals tell you how much the TV Academy is enamored with them. (Shout-out, however, to Seth Rogen’s entirely surprising and well-deserved Pam & Tommy nod.) Though Stuhlbarg’s Dopesick performance was large and attention-grabbing, and both Lacy and Zahn showed impressive range as hapless Hawaiian vacationers, this category truly belongs to Murray Bartlett, The White Lotus’s breakout star and complicated moral center. —K.R.

Predicted Winner: Murray Bartlett, The White Lotus
Could Win: Michael Stuhlbarg, Dopesick
Should Win: Murray Bartlett, The White Lotus

Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Connie Britton, The White Lotus
Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus
Alexandra Daddario, The White Lotus
Kaitlyn Dever, Dopesick
Natasha Rothwell, The White Lotus
Sydney Sweeney, The White Lotus
Mare Winningham, Dopesick

Wait, we’re still waiting for Jennifer Coolidge to get that Emmy? Yes, basically from the moment The White Lotus premiered over a year ago, the scene-stealer has been tipped to win this category. Nothing has changed. A few precursor wins later, her time has finally come. Not even the four (four!) costars nominated alongside her can stop this train. —D.C.

Predicted Winner: Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus
Could Win: Kaitlyn Dever, Dopesick
Should Win: Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus

Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Elizabeth Meriwether, The Dropout (“I’m in a Hurry”)
Patrick Somerville, Station Eleven (“Unbroken Circle”)
Danny Strong, Dopesick (“The People vs. Purdue Pharma”)
Sarah Burgess, Impeachment: American Crime Story (“Man Handled”)
Molly Smith Metzler, Maid (“Snaps”)
Mike White, The White Lotus

We can quickly rule out a few of the contenders in this category, as Maid and Impeachment just didn’t break through enough. The Dropout and Station Eleven both had their fans, and it’s possible that voters would want to reward the shows here since they may not win elsewhere, though Amanda Seyfried will likely get The Dropout some love in the acting category. Dopesick, with its 14 nominations, is a strong contender here, especially since Danny Strong is so well respected in the industry. But we’re convinced that voters are going to reward Mike White for his singular vision for The White Lotus (which heads into the show having received 20 nominations), a deeply layered satire about class, wealth, and privilege set at a Hawaiian resort. —R.F.

Predicted Winner: Mike White, The White Lotus
Could Win: Danny Strong, Dopesick (“The People vs. Purdue Pharma”)
Should Win: Mike White, The White Lotus

Directing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Francesca Gregorini, The Dropout (“Iron Sisters”)
Hiro Murai, Station Eleven (“Wheel of Fire”)
Michael Showalter, The Dropout (“Green Juice”)
Danny Strong, Dopesick (“The People vs. Purdue Pharma”)
John Wells, Maid (“Sky Blue”)
Mike White, The White Lotus

With Mike White set to dominate the competition in the corresponding writing category—and The White Lotus being a heavy hitter in general—can he really also win an Emmy for directing? We’re betting he will, particularly since his strongest competition, The Dropout, is nominated against itself. (Though don’t underestimate Michael Showalter, a man who just directed Jessica Chastain to an Oscar win, is probably about to direct Amanda Seyfried to an Emmy, and is quietly becoming a directorial powerhouse.) John Wells, an esteemed TV veteran, is probably strong here, as is Hiro Murai, but the White Lotus love appears strong enough to power through. —K.R.

Predicted Winner: Mike White, The White Lotus
Could Win: Michael Showalter, The Dropout (“Green Juice”)
Should Win: Mike White, The White Lotus

Competition Program

The Amazing Race
Lizzo’s Watch Out for the Big Grrrls
Nailed It!
RuPaul’s Drag Race
Top Chef
The Voice

This category loves a winning streak, and RuPaul’s Drag Race is in the midst of one, having won the last four years in a row. Can the supernova stardom of Lizzo or the rock-steady joys of The Amazing Race potentially shake things up? We see no reason for it, at least not this year. —K.R.

Predicted Winner: RuPaul’s Drag Race
Could Win: The Amazing Race
Should Win: Nailed It!

Variety Talk Series

The Daily Show With Trevor Noah
Jimmy Kimmel Live!
Last Week Tonight With John Oliver
Late Night With Seth Meyers
The Late Show With Stephen Colbert

Every year we ask if voters will finally move on from John Oliver, and every year the answer is a resounding no. So it’s simultaneously foolish to bet against the newsy HBO series and impossible to ignore the fatigue around its dominance, settling in a bit more year after year. It’ll be beaten out eventually, just like Jon Stewart’s Daily Show was. I’m not brave enough to predict that this is the time Oliver passes the baton, but if it were to happen, look to either the wild card of (overdue) first-time category nominee Seth Meyers or the ever-substantive Trevor Noah. —D.C.

Predicted Winner: Last Week Tonight
Could Win: Late Night
Should Win: The Daily Show

Variety Sketch Series

A Black Lady Sketch Show
Saturday Night Live

Why does a category with only two nominees even exist? That’s a longer story that you can read more about here. This category, which was established in 2015, has been won by Saturday Night Live for the past five years. Last year it featured the exact same two nominees. SNL will win again, but we’re putting our vote toward a reanalysis of this category for future shows. —R.F.

Predicted Winner: Saturday Night Live
Could Win: A Black Lady Sketch Show
Should Win: A Black Lady Sketch Show

Live Updates From the 2022 Emmys

Succession vs. Squid Game, Ted Lasso vs. Barry, and of course, red-carpet fashion. Follow the updates.