The XBB family of Omicron has landed in the U.S. Here’s what it means for this fall’s COVID wave

Erin Prater

<p>XBB—a new, extremely immune-evasive Omicron variant surging in Singapore—hasn’t yet been detected in the U.S. But its child has.</p><div class="paywall-selector"></div><div class="paywall">



<p>XBB.1 was first detected in the U.S. on Sept. 15 and made up 0.26% of cases that were genetically sequenced over the past 15 days, Raj Rajnarayanan, assistant dean of research and associate professor at the New York Institute of Technology campus in Jonesboro, Ark., told<em> Fortune. </em>He cited data from GISAID, an international research organization that tracks changes in COVID and the flu virus.</p>



<p>Only 16 XBB.1 cases have been detected in the U.S. so far, and most have been found in New York—considered a bellwether state because of its volume of incoming international travelers and robust genetic sequencing capabilities, Rajnarayanan said.</p>



<p>XBB is a combination of two different Omicron spawns. It, along with BQ.1.1, is considered to be the most immune-evasive COVID variant so far, surpassing the immune-evasiveness of shared ancestor BA.5, which was dominant around the globe this summer.</p>



<p>Scientists, including top U.S. infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci, expect a fall and winter wave of cases in the U.S. that begins to surge in October and peaks in January. It&#8217;s still unclear which COVID variant may fuel that wave. On Friday the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that heavyweight Omicron spawn BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are in the U.S., and quickly rising. With XBB present as well, the scene has been set for a potential battle royal between two formidable variants.</p>



<p>Compared to XBB, XBB.1 features just “one small change” to the spike protein, which the virus uses to attach to and infect cells. The impact of the alteration is unknown, according to Rajnarayanan.&nbsp;</p>



<p>It’s one of multiple <a href="https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/ConvergentLineages-VariantSoup-World/VariantSoup">XBB offspring</a> being eyed by variant trackers globally that are helping fuel Singapore’s wave—despite a significantly vaccinated and boostered population.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The XBB variant wave in Singapore shows no sign of let up and may well exceed its BA.5 wave.<a href="https://twitter.com/OurWorldInData?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@OurWorldinData</a><br>Singapore has one of the most highly vaccinated populations with 90% 2-shots and 78% boosters<a href="https://t.co/gWCbSb6EfD">https://t.co/gWCbSb6EfD</a> <a href="https://t.co/2avr5DE5Of">pic.twitter.com/2avr5DE5Of</a></p>&mdash; Eric Topol (@EricTopol) <a href="https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1580990002892193792?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 14, 2022</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Pick your poison</h2>



<p>Rajnarayanan isn’t worried about one variant in particular right now, as current Omicron spawn are all picking up similar mutations that confer advantages like increased transmissibility and additional ability to evade immune systems.</p>



<p>He’s keeping a close eye on XBB. But he’s keeping a closer eye on <a href="https://fortune.com/well/2022/10/15/bq11-bq1-omicron-covid-variant-immune-evasive-cases-rising-us-fall-winter-wave-forecast-pandemic/">BQ.1.1</a>, which, along with parent BQ.1, was estimated to make up more than 11% of cases in the U.S. last week—this on the first day the two variants were broken out into their own categories from ancestor BA.5.</p>



<p>BQ.1.1 is surging in New York and also rising in European countries like Germany, where Oktoberfest celebrations may have served as super-spreader events. Its extreme immune evasiveness “sets it up to be the principal driver of the next U.S. wave in the weeks ahead,” Dr. Eric Topol, a professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research and founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, tweeted on Friday.</p>



<p>On Thursday, he told <em>Fortune </em>that scientists won’t know to what extent it evades vaccine protection, if it does, until it reaches 30% to 50% of cases somewhere.</p>



<p>“It’s not going to wipe out vaccine efficacy, but it could put a dent in protection against hospitalizations and death,” he said.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A dwindling toolbox and an upcoming fight</h2>



<p>Both XBB and BQ.1.1 are known to escape antibody immunity, rendering useless monoclonal antibody treatments used in high-risk individuals with COVID. According to a <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.09.15.507787v3">study</a> last month out of Peking University’s Biomedical Pioneering Innovation Center in China, both <a href="https://fortune.com/well/2022/09/24/new-covid-omicron-variants-subvariants-evade-monoclonal-antibodies-bebtelovimab-recombinants-convergent-evolution-sars-immune-evasion/">escape immunity from Bebtelovimab</a>, the <a href="https://fortune.com/well/2022/09/24/new-covid-omicron-variants-subvariants-evade-monoclonal-antibodies-bebtelovimab-recombinants-convergent-evolution-sars-immune-evasion/">last monoclonal antibody drug</a> that is effective on all variants, as well as Evusheld, which works on some. And both could lead to more severe symptoms, the authors wrote.</p>



<p>The ability of XBB to evade immunity is “extreme,” approaching the level of immune evasion shown by <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/sars/about/fs-sars.html">SARS</a>, a coronavirus that infected thousands and caused nearly 800 deaths in the early 2000s, the authors added.</p>



<p>BQ.1.1 and XBB are so distinct from other Omicron strains that they should be granted new Greek letter names, like Pi or Rho, by the World Health Organization, Topol told <em>Fortune </em>last week.</p>



<p>Whether the two strains eventually battle for dominance in the U.S.—or anywhere else—remains to be seen. They may even find themselves sparring in one host—and the result could be a strain that combines the two, Ryan Gregory, a professor of evolutionary biology at the University of Guelph in Ontario, Canada, told <em>Fortune</em>. Or descendants of the two might find themselves battling it out instead.</p>



<p>With the virus’s record rate of evolution, the possibilities are seemingly endless.</p>



<p>“If people aren’t boosted and haven’t been infected in a little while, you’re going to see lots of transmission, you’re going to see direct competition,” Gregory said, speaking of the highly immune-evasive variants. “We’re basically going to see them both move into whatever hosts are available.”</p></div>

XBB is causing a wave of infections in highly vaccinated Singapore. Will the U.S. be next?

Illustration of people in face masks running from a huge tidal wave

Sign up for the <em><a href="https://mynewsletters.fortune.com/fortune-features">Fortune Features</a></em> email list so you don’t miss our biggest features, exclusive interviews, and investigations.

F-BreakingNews

Coronavirus

Well

Health

The XBB family of Omicron has landed in the U.S. Here’s what it means for this fall’s COVID wave | Fortune Well

Alexa Mikhail

If Dry January is too much for you, try its more lenient cousin—Damp January

/well/article/dry-january-damp-january-sobriety/

L'Oreal Thompson Payton

Daylight saving time is ending. 4 ways to keep the time change from wreaking havoc on your sleep

/well/article/daylight-saving-time-2024-end-sleep-tips/

Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck look away from each other at a premier in Los Angeles.

Jennifer Lopez is divorcing Ben Affleck after two years. Here are your divorce odds based on the stage of your marriage

/well/article/jennifer-lopez-ben-affleck-divorce-odds/

Jenna Schnuer

Christina Applegate’s early MS symptoms make it clear that the disease can be mistaken for everyday aches. Here’s what you need to know

/well/article/christina-applegate-early-ms-symptoms-what-you-need-to-know/

Jordyn Bradley

Céline Dion says she may never tour again amid battle with stiff person syndrome. Here’s what to know

/well/2024/04/23/celine-dion-stiff-person-syndrome-symptoms/

Payton Kirol

Girl Scouts’ 58-year-old CEO has run over 8 marathons around the world. Her ethos on work-life balance is ‘the opposite of what most people think’

/well/article/girl-scouts-ceo-wellness-routine/

Fortune Editors

Fortune WELL is your source to living well and working smarter by maintaining balance in your mind, family, health, and life.

Health and wellness, tips, news, and advice

Uncategorized

homepage

Fortune Well

Aging Well – two hands holding each other

Aging Well

Family

Life

Mind - illustration of the surface of the brain

Mind

Dr. Peter Attia's $7,500 a year biohacking clinic attracted Silicon Valley. Now he's betting on the wealthy elite of New York City

https://fortune.com/well/article/peter-attia-biohacking/?itm_source=parsely-api

Carolyn Barber

RFK Jr. touts vitamin A and cod liver oil as another death is reported in growing measles outbreak. Health experts warn the move is 'misleading the public'

https://fortune.com/well/article/rfk-jr-measles-vaccine-vitamin-a-misinformation/?itm_source=parsely-api

Ani Freedman

What's your VO2 max? The most important health metric you're probably not aware of shows how fit you really are

https://fortune.com/well/article/whats-your-vo2-max-fitness-running/?itm_source=parsely-api

11 benefits of chia seeds from gut health to weight loss

https://fortune.com/well/article/chia-seeds-health-benefits/?itm_source=parsely-api

Rachel Reiff Ellis

Want to be a good parent? Experts boil it down to 4 things you should do

https://fortune.com/well/article/how-to-be-a-good-parent/?itm_source=parsely-api

McDonald’s CEO shares 3 food trends driving his business: 'Protein is hot'

https://fortune.com/well/article/mcdonalds-ceo-predictions-restaurant-industry/?itm_source=parsely-api