A large batch of leaked classified US government information, including top-secret briefings, have been discovered online over the past week, with many relating to perhaps the most sensitive arena of intelligence gathering in the world today: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
What do they say?
The most significant parts of the leak concern Kyiv’s level of preparedness for an expected counteroffensive, but there are plenty of lines about other countries’ involvement in the conflict that may cause serious diplomatic difficulties. Here are some of the key revelations so far:
Ukraine: US intelligence officials were pessimistic in February about Ukraine’s prospects for a new attack in the spring, saying Kyiv could fall “well short” of recapturing territory seized by Russia. There are also details of serious air defence shortages and a risk of running out of anti-aircraft missiles completely by May.
Russia: The leaks suggest the US has a remarkable level of insight into Russian military operations, with live information about the targets being attacked by Moscow and details of a plan to pay a bonus to soldiers who damage or destroy Nato tanks. Early on Thursday, the New York Times reported that a new batch of 27 pages shows that “the depth of the infighting inside the Russian government appears broader and deeper than previously understood”. There is also information on the Russian mercenary Wagner group’s plan to expand its operations in Haiti, as well as US use of advanced satellite imaging technology to gather intelligence on Russian forces.
UK: One document suggests 97 special forces operatives were in Ukraine in February and March – 50 of them British. Their purpose there is not specified, but it is suggested that the special forces could form part of a coordinated Nato group.
UN: Some documents seen by the BBC appear to describe private conversations between the UN secretary general, António Guterres, and his deputy about a deal to secure the export of grain from Ukraine to help tackle a global food crisis. The files reportedly suggest the US felt Guterres was too sympathetic to Russian interests, saying he was “undermining broader efforts to hold Moscow accountable for its actions in Ukraine”.
South Korea: Documents based in part on intercepted communications show Seoul grappling with US pressure to ship ammunition to Ukraine amid concerns that artillery shells requested by Washington for its own use could be passed on. South Korea has a longstanding policy of not providing lethal weapons to countries at war.
Israel: Another document says the Mossad intelligence agency encouraged its staff to take part in protests over Benjamin Netanyahu’s plans to weaken the independence of Israel’s judiciary. The Mossad has denied those claims. There is also an assessment of scenarios in which Israel could be persuaded to provide weapons to Ukraine.
How did the leaks come out?
The worst national security breach in the US for years appears to have emerged through a video game messaging platform, where it was posted during an argument about the war in Ukraine.
The documents initially emerged on servers hosted by the gaming focused app Discord. They first appeared in a chatroom devoted to games, music and orthodox Christianity – and replete with racist memes – called Thug Shaker Central, then in another devoted to a Filipino YouTuber called WowMao. In early March they popped up on yet another server, Minecraft Earth Map, where a user who had been debating the war posted 10 of the files with the message: “Here, have some leaked documents.”
After that disorienting origin story, two versions of the cache of files appeared elsewhere. One was posted on 4chan, a conspiratorial online message board where the “alt-right” movement is thought to originate. Another, which analysts say included an edited image with inaccurate casualty figures, was shared on pro-Russian Telegram channels.
Are they real?
US media reports quote officials who say that while versions of some of the documents seem to have been doctored after they were uploaded to the internet, they mostly appear to be authentic. The Washington Post reported that a defence official said the documents appear to have been collated for top US military leaders including Gen Mark Milley, chair of the joint chiefs of staff, but that others with the right security clearances could also have accessed them.
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On Wednesday night, the Post reported that the original source of the files on Thug Shaker Central was the group’s administrator, a man it called OG, who worked on a military base and appeared in a video shouting “a series of racial and antisemitic slurs into the camera, then [firing] several rounds at a target”.
The Post also reports there are about 300 photographs of files in the leak, three times as many as were previously thought to be circulating.
There is some evidence that corroborates the case they were leaked rather than hacked: they appear to be pictures of documents that had been folded up and perhaps stuffed in the perpetrator’s pocket. The images show the documents laid on top of magazines surrounded by items including nail clippers and super glue, next to a book with a picture that looks like the scope of a hunting rifle.
What kind of impact might they have?
The nature of the US assessment of Ukraine’s military readiness is bound to cause friction between Kyiv and Washington, while the detailed picture it presents of the intelligence gathered in Russia is likely to help Moscow take countermeasures to make it more difficult to obtain – with human sources potentially at risk.
There is another problem for the US: the leak appears to show that it spies on some of its allies. That has caused ructions in South Korea and Israel, while CNN reported diplomats from multiple countries saying they planned to raise the matter with Washington.
It may not be surprising that in its public statements, the US is more focused on condemning the leak and identifying its source. Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, has vowed to “turn over every rock” to do so.
There are plenty of tools to do that, from time stamps on documents that appear to show when they were printed to registers of who has viewed the documents. If identified, the culprit could face a lengthy jail sentence. But whatever happens, even the might of the US government has no power to remove the documents from circulation.
