Topline
The Republican presidential primary is on a path to being one of the shortest cycles in three decades, as former President Donald Trump is likely to win the majority of delegates as early as mid-March after decisive victories in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign ... [+]
Key Facts
Republican presidential candidates need to win 1,215 delegates, one more than half the 2,429 available, to win the nomination.
Trump’s campaign estimates he will have enough delegates by March 19—when Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas and Ohio will hold their primaries—a senior campaign official told Reuters in December, citing internal polling suggesting he would total 1,478 delegates by then.
A January Wall Street Journal analysis, based on delegate allocation and FiveThirtyEight primary state polling averages, also found he is likely to secure the nomination by March 19.
Trump appeared poised to clinch the nomination before voting even began, according to a FiveThirtyEight analysis of historical polling figures in December (when Trump was polling at 62% nationally) that found no candidate in history had ever lost the nomination while being so far ahead in national polls so late in the cycle.
Trump has won 33 delegates so far, while former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has won 17, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy won nine and three delegates, respectively, in Iowa, before both dropped out of the race.
Trump could have 109 delegates by Feb. 24, as he is likely to win all 26 delegates Thursday in the Nevada caucuses, and he appears poised to win most or all of South Carolina’s 50 delegates in its Feb. 24 primary as he leads Haley there by 31 points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average.
Surprising Fact
The earliest a non-incumbent has won the nomination since 1988 is March 4, 2008, when John McCain won Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont. President Joe Biden won his party’s nomination in 2020 on June 5, and Trump won in 2016 on May 26.
What To Watch For
Thirty-six percent, 874, of the GOP delegates up for grabs will be awarded on Super Tuesday, March 5, when 16 states and territories will hold their primaries. The biggest hauls will come from California (169 delegates) and Texas (161). Texas awards three delegates for each of its 38 congressional districts, allocated based on the percentage of votes each candidate receives. If a candidate wins more than 50% of the vote statewide, they’ll be awarded all of the state’s remaining 47 delegates.
Key Background
Trump’s campaign is already looking beyond the primaries, focusing his attacks on Biden as Haley’s candidacy appears doomed. She lost Nevada’s GOP primary by more than 30 points Tuesday to “none of these candidates,” but has vowed to stay in the race at least until her home state primary. Her loss in Nevada follows a nine-point defeat to Trump in New Hampshire on Jan. 23 and a third-place finish, behind DeSantis and Trump, in the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15. Biden and Trump appear headed for a tight race, as Trump currently leads Biden by less than two points, according to RealClearPolitics’ national polling average.
